The new international economy and geopolitics

4. The fourth route is the Northern or Arctic Silk Road route. In this case again departing from Asia a ship will pass again between Alaska and Siberia (Barring straight), and then continue towards Siberia, pass the Archangel and finally terminate in the ports of Western Europe. This is a 12,800 km. route, and requires just 35 days of travel however –for the time- due to the Arctic ice this travel option is not attractive. However by 2050, due to climate change and ice melt, the importance and dynamism of the Northern route will increase. To illustrate in 2011 just 41 vessels had used it; by 2013 the number was increased to 71 vessels and by 2020 a total of 331 ships had used this route. Therefore, as time goes by, the importance of the Northern route will increase and the South route will lose some navigation traffic.

5. Thus the control which the naval powers enjoyed over international trade shall be reduced by the use of the Northern route for the first time in history. In addition the constant development of terrestrial, rail and air routes by China and Russia aims to increase terrestrial and air transportation of goods viz. a viz. the sea trade routes, thus eventually a bigger portion of international trade (and the wealth generated by trade) will be controlled by them (via the land silk road).

Therefore, the Anglo-Saxon powers must continue to exercise control over the South Sea route (Pacific-Indian Ocean-Red Sea-Suez-Mediterranean-Gibraltar) in the following decades. This is an immense strategic priority. If the South Sea route is lost (i.e. goes under the control of Beijing and Moscow) then, -with the development of the North Sea route and the aerial and terrestrial networks of Eurasia- the control of global trade (and wealth) will pass completely to the land powers, and if this happens, it will be a tremendous milestone in global history.

6. Unfortunately for the naval powers the control of the South Sea route is difficult due to the immense instability associated with this geographical axis:

- Arctic cycle, (the ice melt makes possible for the first time the economic exploitation of the region). In this region the interests of US, Russia, China, Japan, Canada clash.

- North Pacific, (the dispute between Japan and Russia over the Kuril islands remains unresolved as well as of fishing rights)

- North-South Korea, (the bilateral relations remain problematic and the nuclear program of North Korea creates additional frictions).

- South China Sea, (here there is an issue of uninhabited islets as well as an issue associated with natural resources and an additional issue of sea-trade routes). In the region the interests of China clash with those of other states (Japan, Ιndia, Philippines, Αustralia, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Brunei.). The US oppose Chinese moves as well. The establishment of the US-Japan-India-Australia mechanism (QUAD) aims to block Chinese moves.

-Ιndian Ocean Here is a clash between Chinese and Indian interests. In addition across the Chinese-Indian borders there are multiple border incidents (Galwin valley etc). We stress the 1962 war between the two states, and the incidents of 2020.

- Ιndia-Pakistan, here the tension is associated with the region of Kashmir and also with the strong Pakistan-China alliance which is the biggest headache for Indian security analysts.

- Afghanistan, the Islamic fundamentalist threat remains and there is always the risk of terrorist threats against Western citizens and targets.

-Ιran, here the issue is complex. The country is considered by various Muslim states (Saudi Arabia) as a threat and from Israel. The nuclear program of Tehran creates additional concern and instability. The strong Iranian-Russian-Turkish nexus has puzzled Western analysts as well.

-Middle East here the old Arab-Israeli conflict, has been expanded with additional geopolitical headaches such as the Syrian crisis, the rise of ISIS and the Yemen civil war. In addition the Kurdish issue and the control of the water flows create additional instability.

-North Africa where the Libyan civil war has not terminated yet in spite of a provisional government in power.

-Caucasus, various problems occur here as well. The Armenian-Turkish relations are always poor, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts and disputes remain, the Georgian-Russian relations are problematic, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, the energy corridors-pipelines some backed by the US and others by Russia all create a challenging picture.

- Ukraine, since the 2014 de-facto split of the country and the Russian invasion of Crimea the crisis remains unresolved.

- Baltic, the concentration of Russian forces has caused immense concern to NATO and the long-term intensions of Russia in the region cause extreme concern.

- North Atlantic, The return of Russian naval power forced the US to re-instate the Second Fleet and cooperate more closely with the Royal Navy of Britain.

-South Eastern Europe, The Kossovo issue can trigger again a conflict between Serbia and Albania. In addition the dispute between Hungary and Romania over Transylvania remain open although both states are in the EU. Finally the Hungarian-Serbian dispute over the province of Vojivodina remains unresolved. Recently Hungary requested changes in Trianon Treaty and this triggered Romanian diplomatic reaction.

-The Eastern Mediterranean remains another flash-point with Cyprus issue unresolved and with raising tensions in the Aegean and in the Greek-Turkish borders of Evros river due to Turkish expansionist vision.