The new international economy and geopolitics

- In Latin America Venezuela is another hot-point. The current crisis began on 10/12/2018 when two Russian strategic bombers Τupolev-160 landed at Caracas airport travelling 12,000 km. with air-refuel. The planes returned to Russia five days later but Moscow had sent a clear signal to Washington that its forces can be deployed south of the US. On 23/1/2019 the leader of the opposition Huan Guido was self-proclaimed president under the cheering of many supporters. In two days the US and 14 EU states as well as 11 Latin American countries recognized him as a legitimate new president. However Russia and China re-acted to this development immediately. Both Moscow and Beijing pointed out that Nicholas Maduro remains the only legitimate president. However the assertion of Russia and China is problematic since the people of Venezuela faces immense economic difficulties under the rule of Maduro. In addition to this, an economic power game was triggered, in which Turkey is involved, since according to Western sources, Venezuela sold to Turkey 73 tons of gold and another 127 million Euros were transported from Venezuela to Russian banks.

- The Great Power Rivalry (Washington-Moscow-Beijing tensions and Ibsen Triangle ). Beyond the geopolitical conflicts and disputes across Eurasia and Latin America we observe a Second Cold War between US on the one hand and Russia-China on the other (a new Great Power Competition). This second Cold War is far more intensive compared to the first one.

The analysis of the Great Power Competition across fields cannot fully analysed here due to size limitations however, I shall point out just three incidents to prove the above assertion:

1) During the Russian military drills “Vostok-2018” (11-17 September 2018) in which both China and Mongolia participated, the Russian side deployed 300,000 men, 36,000 tanks and armour vehicles, more than 1,100 airplanes helicopters and drones. The Chinese participation was 3,200 men with 900 tanks and vehicles, 30 airplanes and helicopters. During the drills in just 28 seconds, eight Chinese rocket launchers fired 320 rockets and the aggregate ammunition consumption of the Chinese PLA was above 100,000 shells and bullets. The exercise was the biggest demonstration of conventional forces power since the 1980s. The US and ΝΑΤΟ replied with “Trident Juncture 2018” (25 Οctober- 23 Νοvember 2018), with the participation of 29 states and with a force of 45,000-50,000 men, 150 airplanes, 60 warships including US carrier “Harry S. Truman”, and more than 10,000 tanks, self-propelled guns and armour vehicles. Although, the Western response was smaller in terms of numbers the political message was clear. Just one month after the Russian-Chinese drills the West was also able to respond.

2) The second military incident is associated with the nuclear drills of 2019. During the period 15-17 Οctober 2019 Russia used strategic nuclear forces during the exercise “Thunder 2019” (“GROM-2019”) using ICBMs type RS-24 YARS, as well as Iskander, Sineva (SS-N-23), RS-50 (SS-N-18) type missiles. In the drills an overall 12,000 men of the Russian Space and Strategic Forces used 213 missile launchers, 105 airplanes, 15 surface ships, 5 submarines, 310 special units etc. (Moscow publicized the drills by October 21st). The next day of the Russian drills, October 18th 2019 the US, UK, Canada and Australia replied. Three US military commands (US STRATEGIC COMMAND=USSTRATCOM, NORTH AMERICAN AEROSPACE DEFENCE COMMAND=NORAD and US NORTH COMMAND=USNORTHCOM) made the drills “GLOBAL THUNDER” and “VIGILAND SHIELD20”. Thus we have observed simultaneous drills with strategic nuclear forces; a clear proof of the tense environment between the two sides.

3) In the middle of 2019 the Commander of US Marine Corps, General David Berger pointed out that after twenty years of Marines focus in the regions of the Middle East and Afghanistan the interest (and deployment) is shifting in the Asia-Pacific, and this is caused due to Chinese actions.

It is the first time in global history that we have so many high-risk and high-intensity disputes or open conflicts in vast geographical regions. Across these regions the interests of US, Russia, China and other regional powers clash. It goes without saying that any additional tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, Balkans and North Africa increases the instability of the fragile international system and does not create any benefit to international relations.

Turning again our attention to the South Sea route we point out that any instability generated across the Pacific-Indian Ocean-Persian Gulf-Yemen (Άden-Red Sea), and Eastern Mediterranean regions has a direct harmful effect on the sea passage. To be more specific if Russia and China attempt to exercise control in the South Sea route they have the following options:
1) Control of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. This can be achieved if the PLA Navy and the Russian Navy achieve dominant regional control.
2) Control of the Persian Gulf-Hormuz Straight and the outer sea. This can occur if the Iranian Navy dominates the area with the assistance of Russia and China.
3) Control of Aden. This can occur if Yemen is under the control of the Houthi rebels which are assisted by Iran and opposed by Saudi Arabia.
4) Control of the Eastern Mediterranean. This can occur after a Greek-Turkish war with Turkey being under the control of Russia and China.

GREECE-USΑ AND THE HELLENIC-ΑMERICAN STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP